Planning for our future - Reserves & the economy

For the past two years, regional planners have been meeting and discussing ways to accommodate future growth, while protecting the environmental attributes that make this region a desirable place to live and work.  But as we near the end of this laborious process, are we getting any closer to finally reaching agreements, and charting a new course?

In 2007, state lawmakers gave Metro and three metropolitan counties a two year extension to complete their regional planning efforts and maintain a 20-year supply of developable areas for housing and jobs in the state’s most populace region.  For the first time, regional planners promised to create “urban” and “rural reserves” that will designate where the tri-county region can grow---or cannot grow---over the next 50 years. To accomplish this, spokesmen for Metro and the three urban counties must reach unanimous agreement in their recommendations, before formal agreements seal the deal.

When asked whether this “Core Four” planning committee may be getting ready to adopt a map, depicting the proposed “reserve” areas, Washington County Chairman Tom Brian told an OPB interviewer last week, “We’re getting closer.”

Chair Brian, who represents Washington County on the Core Four panel, described the difficult task of choosing urban and rural reserves on OPB’s “Talk Out Loud,” radio talk show, where he was joined by Portland Mayor Sam Adams.  Mayor Adams is not a member of the Core Four committee, but represents the populated core of the metropolitan region.

Chair Brian and members of the Washington County Board of Commissioners also held a public hearing last week to hear public comments and testimony from a capacity crowd of land owners and concerned citizens.  WEA executive director Jonathan Schlueter cautioned the proposed “urban reserve” areas may not be sufficient to accommodate 50 years of growth and development, but may increase costs and lower the region’s standard of living.

“Metro assumes 225,000-301,000 new housing units will be needed in our region over the next 20 years," Schlueter observed, ”but these projections assume 11,000-15,000 new homes will be built and occupied each year---which is equivalent to the number of apartments and condos being built in the Pearl District and South Waterfront combined every year for the next 25 years.”

Other assumptions contained in Metro’s Urban Growth Report anticipate home ownership rates topping 90 percent in Tualatin and West Linn neighborhoods, while infill and redevelopment rates across the tri-county region are expected to top 41 percent.  “Numbers like these have never been reached in this region---or any region--- let alone sustained for 20 consecutive years,” Schlueter warned.

In terms of future employment opportunities, Metro’s planning reports forecast brownfield and redevelopment areas will absorb tens of thousands of new jobs inside the urban growth boundary.  Yet despite Oregon’s strict land use laws and urban growth boundaries, a 2009 report by The Brookings Institute of America’s 100 largest cities, ranked Portland 47th nationally in terms of the numbers of jobs clustered within three miles of our urban center and 38th nationally for jobs found within 35 miles of our downtown center during the past 10 years.

A recent study by the Portland Business Alliance recorded 3,000 fewer jobs in the central core of that city since 2008 and the lowest number of jobs among downtown employers in more than five years.

Speaking to business and community leaders last Friday at WEA’s Breakfast Forum, University of Oregon economist Tim Duy told WEA members and guests that economics drive businesses away from the urban center of our region, but the urban core has the political clout to limit business growth and development on the urban perimeters.

Duy asked his audience, ”Why are we roping ourselves off?” adding it appears the Portland region is only reluctantly willing to offer potential employment sites chosen by political motivations instead of economic benefit or necessity.

“Are you willing to accept being average as a region?” Duy asked.  In order to be sustainable, there are two components the professor said we need to consider.  One is environment, and the other is economics. 

In comparing the Portland metropolitan region to Seattle, Duy said Seattle is green and has higher incomes.  “Do we just want to be green?” he asked, “Why can’t we have the higher incomes to go with it?”

When it comes to attracting jobs and business to Oregon, Duy explained that location choice is essential.  The City of Portland has tried creating a livable region, yet it hasn’t attracted the jobs to go with it.  Duy said creating communities is important, but it’s important to have desirable businesses too.

According to Duy, what makes a region attractive to business is labor, infrastructure, transportation network, a pro-business climate, and land supply.

WEA testimony to Washington County Board of Commissioners 12/15/09

Tim Duy's PowerPointe presentation 12/18/09

Current map of reserves being proposed as of 12/16/09